China Intensifies Pressure on Taiwan Amid Declining US Deterrence

The Government of China is executing a multi-pronged campaign of military, diplomatic, and psychological pressure against Taiwan. The People's Liberation Army has increased air incursions and conducted mock blockades, while Chinese intelligence successfully infiltrated the Taiwanese military via the Wo Long Hui society. This espionage effort recently led to convictions of former military officers in Kaohsiung.

In response, the National Security Council of Taiwan is bolstering asymmetric warfare capabilities and societal resilience to deter potential aggression. However, the ability of the United States to provide a deterrent has declined due to depleted missile stocks and the diversion of naval assets to a conflict in Iran.

President Donald Trump has reduced US warship transits through the Taiwan Strait by 50% compared to his first administration. He has indicated that arms sales to Taipei may serve as a negotiating chip with Beijing, stating that his decisions on these sales depend on China. This perceived shift in US commitment has led to warnings that China may see a window of opportunity to pursue unification or invasion by 2027.