CBO Estimates Trump Golden Dome Shield at $1.2 Trillion

The Congressional Budget Office released a report estimating that Donald Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" national missile defense system would cost approximately $1.2 trillion over 20 years, far exceeding the $175 billion figure Trump cited when announcing the project and the $185 billion projected by Golden Dome Director Gen. Michael Guetlein. The estimate also more than doubled a prior CBO projection of $542 billion. The CBO modeled a notional four-tiered architecture because the Defense Department has released few details about the actual program scope, noting its figure reflects "one illustrative approach rather than an estimate of a specific Administration proposal."

Acquisition costs alone would exceed $1 trillion, with the space-based interceptor layer — a constellation of 7,800 satellites — accounting for roughly 70 percent of acquisition costs and 60 percent of total expenditure. Eliminating the space layer would reduce costs to $448 billion but fail to meet the executive order's requirements. The system, designed to protect the entire United States including Alaska and Hawaii, could fully engage a limited attack from a regional adversary like North Korea or a small-scale strike from a near-peer rival, but the CBO warned it could be overwhelmed by a full-scale attack from Russia or China.

Trump ordered the Golden Dome via executive order during his first week in office in January 2025, demanding it be operational by January 2029. Congress has already approved roughly $24 billion for the initiative, and the Space Force has awarded up to $3.2 billion in development contracts to 12 companies, with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, Boeing, and SpaceX positioned to compete for production contracts. Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, who requested the CBO estimate, called the program "a massive giveaway to defense contractors paid for entirely by working Americans." The CBO noted the gap between its estimate and the Defense Department's may reflect different timeframes, scopes, or expected funding from other accounts.