Copper Prices Volatile Amid Trump Tariff Speculation

Copper prices are experiencing significant volatility as traders speculate whether Donald Trump will implement proposed tariffs on refined metal imports. The threat of a 15% tariff, recommended by the United States Department of Commerce for 2027, previously drove prices to a record near $15,000 a metric ton last month. This anticipation led traders to move global inventories into the United States, depleting stocks elsewhere and creating a market bubble that Natixis warns could burst.

Financial analysts at Macquarie Group suggest prices could crash toward $10,000 a ton if tariffs are ruled out, or rally to $18,000 if they are announced with a delay. Market stability is further pressured by upcoming U.S. midterm elections and potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. On the supply side, BHP Group reported a 19% year-on-year decline in quarterly copper production due to lower ore grades, maintenance, and severe weather.

Despite this volatility, copper has outperformed gold in 2026, rallying 15.8% year-to-date. This growth is driven by inelastic demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure, power-grid investments, and national defense spending. Taylor Melvin, CEO of Ivanhoe Electric, noted that metals once called critical are now becoming strategic metals in every sense of the word, particularly for hyperscale data centers and national security.