DOJ and CFTC Probe $7 Billion in Trump-Linked Insider Trades

The United States Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are investigating an estimated $7 billion in suspicious oil futures and prediction market trades that occurred immediately before key announcements by President Donald Trump regarding the conflict with Iran. Probes focus on massive short positions on the Intercontinental Exchange and CME Group that preceded decisions to delay strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, the announcement of a two-week ceasefire on April 7, and a subsequent ceasefire extension on April 21.

Parallel scrutiny centers on the prediction market Polymarket, where at least 50 new accounts earned hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting on the April 7 ceasefire minutes before it was publicized. Harvard University researchers estimate that insider information may have generated $143 million in profits on the platform. Similar patterns emerged around the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Concerns are compounded by reports that Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and an adviser to competitor Kalshi.

In response, the White House Management Office issued warnings to staff as early as March 24, reminding employees that using non-public information for financial gain is a federal crime. However, White House spokespeople have dismissed allegations of administration misconduct as "baseless and irresponsible reporting." Bipartisan lawmakers have introduced several bills, including the PREDICT Act, to ban federal officials from trading in political prediction markets and to prohibit bets on military operations, which Senator Richard Blumenthal characterized as turning national security into a "casino game."