US Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low as Rates Climb

The United States housing market entered a period of severe stagnation in September 2026, as pending home sales dropped 7.3% from August and 11.3% year-over-year. This decline represents the lowest level since the data series began in 2001, driven largely by 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbing from 6.8% to 7.6% during the month.

Industry indicators show deepening distress, including a 13% year-over-year increase in foreclosure filings as of August and homebuilder sentiment hitting its lowest level since June 2012. A mortgage-rate lock-in effect has emerged, where homeowners with low pandemic-era rates refuse to sell to avoid higher borrowing costs.

Forecasts for 2027 suggest further deterioration. Goldman Sachs predicts only 3.9 million existing homes will change hands, a 26% decrease compared to 2019 levels. Simultaneously, the Mortgage Bankers Association expects single-family mortgage lending to decline by 5% next year, while new construction for both single-family and multifamily homes is expected to fall.