Iran Manages Leadership Transition After Death of Ali Khamenei

The Iranian leadership is undergoing a critical transition following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli airstrikes during the holy month of Ramadan. While the Assembly of Experts is constitutionally tasked with selecting a successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, an ayatollah with deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is widely expected to take power. His ascension would likely signal a more security-centered leadership and a hardened posture toward the West.

In the immediate aftermath, Ali Larijani has emerged as the de facto wartime leader in his capacity as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Larijani is coordinating a strategic leadership council that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei.

To ensure regime survival amid an all-out assault and the loss of several proxies, the council is implementing a strategy of calibrated escalation. This involves targeting regional shipping and energy infrastructure to create leverage against the United States. The Iranian leadership seeks a transactional arrangement, similar to the Venezuela model, to allow the return of Iranian oil to global markets without requiring full normalization with Washington.