Chancellor Merz Warns AfD Victory Would Harm Saxony-Anhalt Economy

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised for a potential breakthrough in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections on September 6, with polls showing support around 42%. Such a victory would mark the first time a far-right party has led a German state government since World War II, threatening the long-standing political firewall intended to exclude the party from power.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that an AfD-led administration would cause significant economic damage and deter international investors. The Halle Institute for Economic Research estimates that such a government could reduce annual growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point by deterring foreign workers in logistics and construction. While Merz expressed conviction that the final result would differ from current polling, the AfD currently leads the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU) by nearly 20 points.

Under local leader Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD has shifted its image toward optimism while maintaining radical goals, including a remigration program. The party has gained traction among Mittelstand business leaders seeking cheaper energy via nuclear power and Russian fossil fuels. Conversely, analysis from Nomura suggests financial markets are less fearful of right-wing victories than in the past, viewing them as more fiscally prudent than populist left-wing parties.

Interior Minister Tamara Zieschang has requested police backup to manage expected unrest on election day. If the AfD fails to secure an absolute majority, the CDU may be forced into unlikely coalitions with far-left parties like Die Linke to block the far-right.