Trump Approval Drops Among Republicans and Youth Voters

President Donald Trump is experiencing a decline in support across key demographics less than three months before the midterm elections. An Economist/YouGov poll shows his approval among Republican voters has fallen to 79%, the lowest of his second term. This slide is most pronounced among non-MAGA Republicans, whose approval dropped 13 percentage points in a single week to 51%, driven by concerns over corruption, high prices, and the war in Iran.

Simultaneously, support for the president has collapsed among voters under 30. Net approval in this group shifted from plus-10 points at the start of his term to negative-30 points. Data indicates a broader generational disillusionment, with 54 percent of adults aged 18 to 29 believing their life opportunities are worse than those of their parents, compared to 2 percent in 2000.

These trends are creating immediate electoral risks for the GOP. In Texas's 15th District, prediction markets show a statistical tie between Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz and Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido, despite Trump winning the district by 18 points in 2024. Additionally, the conservative group AFP Action warned that up to 20 percent of core Republican voters might abstain from voting in November, potentially jeopardizing the GOP's Senate majority and House control.