Brent Crude Surges as US-Iran Truce Expires

Brent crude oil prices rose approximately $10 per barrel over two weeks, trading between $91 and $92 per barrel in August 2026. The price surge followed the expiration of a 60-day truce between the United States and Iran on Monday, which previously helped stabilize global supplies.

Donald Trump intensified market volatility by refusing to extend the Tehran agreement and claiming U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz. He warned Oman against interfering with U.S. policy regarding Iranian shipping and threatened to bomb the country if it obstructed a U.S. naval blockade. These tensions have severely disrupted transit, with tanker crossings in the strait dropping from 30-40 per day to roughly 10, reducing liquid flows to four million barrels per day from an estimated nine million.

Global markets are reacting to these supply risks through various mitigation strategies. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are offering cargoes outside the Strait of Hormuz to maintain flows, while Indian refiners are shifting toward spot markets and seeking crude from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana to avoid high premiums. However, a proposed U.S. Senate bill targeting buyers of Russian oil with tariffs up to 100% threatens further disruption.

The economic impact has reached global consumers, with South Africa projecting fuel price increases for September 2026. Diesel users there face the steepest hikes, between R2.73 and R2.90 per litre, as rising crude costs outweigh the strength of the South African rand.