Oil Prices Near $100 as Hormuz Disruptions Cause Historic Supply Loss

Global oil prices climbed toward $100 per barrel on April 22, 2026, following a historic disruption that removed 500 million barrels of supply from the market over seven weeks. The crisis is centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where gunfire attacks on container ships and severe traffic restrictions have blocked roughly 20 million barrels per day. In March, global supply plummeted by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day, the largest such disruption in history.

Donald Trump, President of the United States, unilaterally extended a ceasefire indefinitely, though he noted that the Iranian government is "seriously fractured" between the Ayatollah's faction and the Revolutionary Guard. This internal political fragmentation has contributed to the collapse of Iranian exports to near zero, leaving a global supply deficit estimated between 13 and 16 million barrels per day.

Infrastructure damage has further complicated the outlook. Iranian missile strikes on the Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar are expected to cause $20 billion in annual revenue losses and require five years of repairs. The International Energy Agency estimates it could take producers up to two years to restore output to pre-war levels. The energy shock has already triggered declines in the Indian rupee and other oil-sensitive Asian currencies, while regional stock indices like India's Nifty 50 recorded losses.