Analysts Predict Stock Market Surge After U.S. Midterms
Market analysts expect the S&P 500 to rise following the November 3 midterm elections, citing historical trends and strong corporate earnings.
U.S. voters will elect representatives for the House and Senate on November 3. Market analysts predict a stock market surge following the vote, noting that the S&P 500 has been positive in the 12 months after every midterm since 1950, with an average gain of 15%.
Prediction market data from Kalshi indicates the Democratic Party has a 91% chance of reclaiming the House and a 67% chance of taking the Senate. Analysts suggest a Democratic-controlled Congress could limit President Donald Trump's ability to continue the war in Iran, potentially lowering inflation and gas prices, though it might increase opposition to AI-critical data centers.
Despite these political variables, experts believe expected gridlock and strong corporate earnings will benefit investors. Jordan Jackson of JPMorgan advised investors to avoid trading around the election and instead remain diversified and focused on long-term drivers of returns.
