Trump Job Approval Drops Amid Tariffs and Iran Conflict

President Donald Trump is experiencing a decline in job approval ratings as the midterm elections approach. Polling data varies by source, with the American Research Group reporting 30% approval, Echelon Insights noting 38%, and G. Elliott Morris calculating that the president is 22 points underwater. Echelon Insights specifically highlighted a 34-point swing since January 2025 among voters with a high school education or less.

The downward trend follows several policy and geopolitical developments. Since February, a resumed conflict with Iran has resulted in the deaths of 17 U.S. service members. Additionally, the administration imposed 50% tariffs on certain goods from Canada and oversaw a rise in domestic gas prices.

In a shift of domestic policy, Trump reversed a temporary suspension of vehicle stops conducted by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This reversal followed fatal shootings involving ICE agents in Texas and Maine. To mitigate the polling decline, GOP strategists and Speaker Mike Johnson are attempting to frame the midterms as a choice between political parties rather than a referendum on the president's performance.