Long-Term Unemployment Surges Ahead of 2026 Midterm Elections

Long-term unemployment in the United States has surged to approximately 1.9 million people as of September, marking a 68 percent increase since 2023. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and MyPerfectResume show that while the headline unemployment rate remained stable between 4.1 percent and 4.3 percent since March, the labor market has entered a low-hire, low-fire environment. September saw only 29,000 jobs added, a trend driven by rising prices and economic uncertainty.

This labor market weakness coincides with a sharp disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and public sentiment. Despite GDP growth and a drop in inflation to 3.7 percent by September 2026, consumer sentiment has declined. Analysts attribute this gap to rising wealth inequality and a recent drop in inflation-adjusted wages.

Donald Trump faces high disapproval ratings regarding his handling of the economy, with polls showing disapproval between 64.7 percent and 65 percent. A Pew Research Center survey found that 84 percent of registered voters consider the economy a very important factor in their vote for the November 3 midterms. This widespread pessimism creates a grim polling outlook for the Republican Party, with expectations that the election will serve as an indictment of economic management and lead to significant Democratic Party gains in Congress.