U.S. Experiences First Negative Net Migration Since 1930s

The United States experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time since at least 1935, according to a January 2026 report by the Brookings Institution. The research organization estimates net migration fell between -295,000 and -10,000, with some calculations placing the net loss at approximately 150,000 people. This shift is attributed to the restrictive policies of the second Donald Trump administration, including the suspension of most refugee and humanitarian programs and increased enforcement activity.

The population outflow consists of two primary groups: undocumented immigrants and U.S. citizens. The Department of Homeland Security reported 2.875 million total removals and self-deportations in 2025. Simultaneously, at least 180,000 American citizens moved abroad—a trend some call the "Donald Dash"—citing concerns over politics, affordability, and safety. Record increases in U.S. arrivals were noted in Ireland, Germany, and across the European Union.

Government agencies provided conflicting data on the scale of the trend. While Brookings reported negative flows, the Congressional Budget Office estimated a positive net migration of 400,000, citing different calculation methods for voluntary departures. The White House defended the policies, stating the U.S. economy is outpacing other developed nations and highlighting efforts to attract ultra-high net worth foreigners via Gold Cards.

Economists warn that the trend is likely to continue into 2026. The Brookings Institution predicts this slowdown will dampen GDP and labor force growth, potentially reducing consumer spending by $60 billion to $110 billion over 2025 and 2026.