Gulf States Pivot From US After Iran Conflict

Gulf Cooperation Council states are pursuing a more strategically autonomous foreign policy after absorbing significant damage to civilian and oil infrastructure during the recent conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Despite relying on U.S. security hardware and defense procurement, GCC governments are increasingly conditioning American military requests, citing Washington's unilateral actions during the war that were conducted without meaningful consultation with Gulf partners.

Privately, GCC states have concluded that Iran demonstrated strategic resilience by surviving simultaneous confrontation with both the U.S. and Israel. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks, cutting off approximately one-fifth of global oil supply, and launched missile and drone strikes across GCC territory. Rather than seeking Iran's elimination, Gulf states now favor diplomatic management of Tehran.

As a hedge against U.S. unreliability, these states are maintaining strong commercial ties with China and preserving energy market relationships with Russia. The shift reflects a broader reassessment of regional security dependencies following a war that imposed steep costs on GCC members without their input on key decisions.

Saudi normalization with Israel remains unlikely. Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud requires a credible U.S. commitment to Palestinian statehood before pursuing any such agreement, a condition that President Donald Trump has publicly pushed for in the war's aftermath.