Polls Project Hung Parliament as Conservatives Surpass Reform UK

Multiple polls conducted on September 24 project a hung parliament if a general election were held immediately, with no single party reaching the 326 seats required for a majority. The Labour Party is projected to remain the largest party, though its position has fluctuated across models. YouGov MRP projections place Labour at 241 seats—a significant drop from its 411 seats in 2024—while a Survation model suggests tactical voting could push Labour as high as 319 seats.

The Conservative Party, led by Kemi Badenoch, is projected to reclaim its position as the second-largest party with 130 seats, surpassing Reform UK's 123 seats. The Conservatives are attempting to rebuild support through pledges to abolish stamp duty, leave the European Convention on Human Rights, and abandon the 2050 net zero target.

Reform UK has seen a sharp decline from previous projections, which once placed them as high as 311 seats. This downturn coincides with financial allegations facing Nigel Farage, including a parliamentary investigation into a £5 million gift and a Metropolitan Police probe into donation rules. Additionally, the emergence of Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party has further fragmented the right-wing vote.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham would likely require a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party to govern. Survation research suggests Labour's path to stability relies on a progressive majority of voters united by concerns over the cost of living and the NHS, though they remain divided on immigration.