Social Security 2027 COLA Forecast at 3.5 Percent

The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 14, following the release of the September inflation report. The Senior Citizens League forecasts a 3.5 percent increase, which would be one of the largest adjustments in 35 years. This projected raise would increase the average monthly retirement benefit of $2,088 by approximately $73 and the average spousal benefit of $987 by $35.

Analysts attribute the inflation driving this increase to "Trumpflation," resulting from global tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in July 2026 and a conflict with Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing energy prices to surge. For roughly 29 million retirees in traditional Medicare, the 2027 COLA is expected to outpace the rise in Medicare Part B premiums for the first time since 2023. While the COLA is estimated at 3.5 percent, the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects Part B premiums will rise by only 3.25 percent to $209.50 per month.

The Social Security Administration will send personalized notices with exact benefit amounts to recipients in early December. Financial guidance continues to suggest that delaying benefit claims until age 70 provides a more significant permanent increase in monthly payments than claiming at the earliest eligibility age of 62.