Goldman Sachs Warns European Gas Prices Must Hit €100

Analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that European natural gas prices may need to exceed €100 per megawatt-hour by December 2026 to ensure sufficient winter inventory. Current Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark prices, which reached approximately 66.85 euros per MWh on August 24, are considered insufficient to divert enough liquefied natural gas from Asian markets to Europe.

The procurement crisis is driven by an ongoing war involving Iran and a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which has reduced shipments to a trickle and limited Qatari LNG term volumes. This instability coincides with President Donald Trump's announcement of an "economic D-Day" against Iran.

Storage levels have shown volatility in recent reports, with initial projections placing Northwest European storage at 51% full by the end of August, while later data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicated levels at approximately 62%. Despite the increase, these levels remain the lowest for this time of year in nearly two decades and fall below the five-year average. While Rystad Energy suggests a "super" El Niño weather pattern could reduce demand and offset low inventories, Goldman Sachs maintains that prices must rise significantly if Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027.