Roy Cooper Leads Michael Whatley in North Carolina Senate Race

Democratic candidate Roy Cooper holds a significant lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the contest for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat. A Fox News poll released July 30 shows Cooper with 53% support compared to 44% for Whatley, with an enthusiasm gap further favoring the Democratic candidate among highly motivated voters.

Analysis of a June Catawba College–YouGov survey indicates a statistically significant decline in the certainty of Republican voters to cast ballots in the November midterm election. In contrast, Democratic certainty has remained steady or increased. Michael Bitzer, director of Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, noted that Republicans and Democrats have meaningfully diverged in their certainty about voting for the first time this year.

The race follows the decision by Republican Senator Thom Tillis not to seek reelection. Donald Trump endorsed Whatley for the seat, though Trump currently holds an unfavorable rating of 58% among North Carolina voters.