Inflation and Iran Conflict Weaken Trump Ahead of Midterms
Donald Trump faces declining approval ratings as inflation, rising health premiums, and conflict with Iran drive up living costs before the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump faces significant political vulnerability entering the midterm elections as rising inflation and the cost of living erode public support. A May poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena shows Trump's approval for handling the cost of living has dropped by 42 percentage points. Consumer prices rose 3.8% in the year ending April 2026, marking the highest annual rate in two years.
Several administration policies have contributed to this economic pressure. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs increased the price of durable goods, while the termination of enhanced Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies resulted in a 58% increase in average premiums. Additionally, Trump's war against Iran led to the strangling of the strait of Hormuz, which curtailed global oil and gas supplies and pushed gasoline prices to approximately $4.50 per gallon.
Trump's political challenges extend to the Republican party's internal dynamics in Texas. By endorsing Ken Paxton over the incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary, Trump has potentially jeopardized the seat for the November general election, where Paxton will face Democratic candidate James Talarico.
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