U.S. Tariff Revenue Hits Highest Rate Since 1934

The United States government has experienced a sharp increase in tariff revenue since Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025. The United States Department of the Treasury collected $29.6 billion from customs and certain excise taxes in July 2025, bringing the fiscal year-to-date total to $154.4 billion. This figure represents a significant rise from the $77.9 billion collected during the same period in 2024.

Data from the Yale Budget Lab indicates the average effective tariff rate has reached 18.3 percent, the highest level since 1934. While tariffs currently account for 0.3 percent of GDP, the Bipartisan Policy Center suggests these revenues could eventually comprise 5 percent or more of total federal government funding.

Projections estimate that current tariffs could generate $2.7 trillion between 2026 and 2035. However, this gain may be partially offset by an estimated $466 billion decline in other tax revenues resulting from reduced economic output. Economists and historians note that while such revenue streams can become addictive during periods of high federal debt, the U.S. has historically abandoned productive but unpopular taxes to prioritize economic growth or equity.