Taliban Faces Open War With Pakistan and Internal Revolt

The Taliban government in Afghanistan is facing a systemic crisis five years after seizing power, characterized by an open war with Pakistan and rising internal armed resistance. Relations with Islamabad have collapsed, leading to dozens of Pakistani airstrikes against Taliban bases. The United Nations reports these strikes have killed 500 civilians since October. Pakistan accuses the regime of harboring the Tahreek-I Taliban Pakistan, while the Taliban claim Pakistan supports armed groups attacking their outposts.

Internally, the regime faces a growing insurgency in Badakhshan province, where followers of dissident commander Juma Khan Fateh are fighting the Taliban for control of resources. This instability is compounded by a humanitarian crisis and mass unemployment, exacerbated by the forced return of nearly four million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan since January 2025. The regime continues to repress critics and restrict women's education, depriving 2.4 million girls of secondary schooling.

Internationally, the Taliban remain largely unrecognized, though Russia has granted formal recognition and China has expanded diplomatic ties. United States President Donald Trump has shuttered the US Agency for International Development and demanded the return of the Bagram airbase and $7 billion in military assets. Despite this friction, the United Nations has indirectly delivered billions in US funds to the group.