Josh Shapiro Leads Pennsylvania Governor's Race by 16 Points

Josh Shapiro holds a 16-percentage-point lead over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in the Pennsylvania governor's race, according to a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll. Shapiro maintains a 60 percent approval rating and leads across nearly every demographic, including capturing 11 percent of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024.

Economic concerns and the cost of living are the primary drivers of voter support for the governor. Recently, Shapiro signed an executive order imposing strict guardrails on the development of artificial intelligence data centers. While this policy shift aligns him with a majority of Pennsylvanians, Garrity has accused him of flip-flopping on the issue.

Despite his broad lead, the poll shows a divide among younger voters, with 40 percent of those under 30 believing Shapiro has been too supportive of Israel. The data also suggests strong momentum for a future national run, as 86 percent of potential Democratic primary voters in the state say they would consider supporting him for president in 2028.