Iran Consolidates Hard-Line Leadership Amid Supreme Leader's Absence

Iran has restructured its ruling system around a hard-line core of military generals and clerics six months after United States and Israeli air strikes on February 28. The bombing campaign killed the former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and left his successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, with disfiguring facial wounds. Mojtaba Khamenei has remained unseen and unheard by the public for six months, fueling skepticism about his status despite assertions from government officials that he continues to make final decisions from the shadows for security reasons.

To ensure internal cohesion and prevent domestic unrest, the supreme leader has appointed longtime allies to key positions. These include Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and Hossein Taeb as head of the Basij. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has simultaneously increased its influence over strategic thinking, with the ruling system now centering on the Supreme National Security Council of Iran to preserve the state and restore deterrence.

Internal divisions persist regarding the conflict with the United States. President Masoud Pezeshkian continues to advocate for a negotiated end to the war. Conversely, hard-liners have threatened seismic retaliation and the total cessation of oil exports from the Persian Gulf if U.S. economic pressure and sanctions continue following the collapse of a June ceasefire deal.