Ontario Fuel Prices Spike as US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses

Fuel prices in Ontario are projected to rise sharply following the collapse of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, predicts gasoline prices in the Greater Toronto Area will climb by five cents per litre to a peak of 169.9 cents on Friday, July 11, 2026, while diesel will jump 13 cents to 198.9 cents.

This volatility follows a conflict that began February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. While a temporary ceasefire existed, President Donald Trump terminated the agreement after Iran struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This led to an exchange of fire and a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. Recent escalations include an attack on three tankers on Tuesday, July 7.

McTeague attributes the stubborn costs to a physical energy crisis, noting that shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz—where 25% of seaborne oil trade passes—remain below pre-war levels. He alleges that short-sellers have engaged in sophisticated manipulation of the futures market to talk down prices. Additionally, he warns that U.S. diesel inventories have fallen 16% below their five-year average, creating critical shortages in diesel and jet fuel that will likely keep prices high in the long term.