Republicans Risk House Majority After Mid-Decade Redistricting Push

The Republican Party spent $133 million on television advertising to support an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting campaign aimed at protecting its narrow House majority. Urged by Donald Trump to redraw districts in the middle of the decade, the party initially targeted 16 seats for gains. However, strategists now fear the effort may net as few as one seat.

Recent polling indicates that nine of the targeted districts are now too close to call or expected to flip to Democrats, while a tenth was invalidated by the courts. This erosion is attributed to a decline in Donald Trump's approval ratings—linked to high gas prices and the war in Iran—and a collapse in support among Latino voters in Texas and Florida. In Florida, Republicans now expect to win only two or three of the four seats they targeted.

Legal challenges and Democratic counter-strategies have further diminished GOP gains. The Supreme Court of the United States invalidated a 2025 map in Missouri, removing one targeted seat from the Republican list. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party implemented its own redistricting in California, where Governor Gavin Newsom's plan added five seats favoring Democrats. While Republicans remain confident in pickups in Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee, Democrats need to flip at least four seats in the November 3 elections to gain control of the chamber.