James Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race

Democratic candidate James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate race. A Texas Southern University poll conducted between September 15 and 19 shows Talarico leading by one point with 47% support compared to Paxton's 46%. An earlier NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo poll from early September showed a wider gap, with Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%. The Cook Political Report currently rates the contest as a toss-up.

Talarico, a former seminary student, has centered his campaign on his Christian identity to appeal to white evangelicals. This strategy has drawn sharp criticism from conservative influencers like Josh Howerton and Allie Beth Stuckey, who have characterized him as a false teacher. Meanwhile, Paxton faces challenges with party unity; the Texas Southern University poll indicates only 84% of Republicans support him, while 7% say they would vote for Talarico.

To close this gap, Texas GOP Chairwoman D’Rinda Randall is promoting Paxton's record and criticizing Talarico's positions on abortion, school vouchers, and the oil and gas industry. Republicans have also utilized massive super PAC infusions to offset Talarico's fundraising advantage, including nearly $54 million from the Senate Leadership Fund and $5 million from MAGA Inc. Democrats are coordinating their efforts with other statewide candidates, including gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa, to challenge the Republican stronghold in Texas.