Ken Paxton

Audio from a September 24 Washington fundraiser shows Paxton privately blaming Trump's Iran war and diesel prices above $6 a gallon for his weak polling, calling affordability the campaign's "biggest problem" and telling donors the Trump-backed Dallas convention damaged his numbers. He said he has "never been in a race" where he felt less control over his own messaging, with decisions dictated from Washington; some GOP donors and officials privately weighed pulling financial support, and strategists called the campaign a "slow-moving car crash." Even amid the leak, Trump headlined San Antonio and Denton rallies for him, calling him "the greatest attorney general in America" and one of the most loyal people in his life, yet also played the audio at an Oklahoma rally, defended his Dallas convention as "amazing," and mocked Paxton as "a pain in the ass" at the Denton stop.

Public polls put Talarico ahead by two to six points: five points in Texas Public Opinion Research polling, 51-49 within the margin of error in a Fox News survey, and 50-44 in an October 9 Reuters/Ipsos finding driven largely by voters under 45. The Fox survey has Paxton 18 points underwater on favorability, with 51 percent of likely voters concerned he is too close to Trump, though he leads among rural voters and White evangelicals; senior adviser Nick Maddux claims internal polling shows a three-point Paxton lead. He is counterpunching with a "most radical Democrat ever run statewide in Texas" attack line, a homebuyer-assistance economic plan, and a "proof of life" demand backed by a "Tala-Freak-Out Tip Line" during Talarico's flu absence.

Paxton has declined every debate invitation this cycle despite his spokesperson previously saying he would participate, including four local TV debates Talarico says he accepted and a formal challenge moderated by Bret Baier. Talarico presses the issue daily, saying Paxton "refuses to answer the public's questions because he's not a public servant — he's a puppet" and that he "literally runs away" from reporters. Texas Republican Jeff Leach has publicly broken ranks, saying Paxton "needs to get on a debate stage with James Talarico."

Paxton is badly outgunned on his own books, with Talarico holding $21.5 million on hand to his $1.8 million as of June, and Republicans have now spent nearly $200 million supporting him. GOP-aligned groups have committed more than $131 million, including more than $102 million in ads booked from September 1 through Election Day; Trump, meanwhile, has routed at least $126 million through two PACs created September 1, No Going Back and Safety & Affordability, on top of MAGA Inc.'s $15 million, after Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senator John Kennedy publicly appealed for help. The commitment is not unanimous: John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the May runoff, refuses to fund the campaign, calling the Texas spend "a limited resource" needed for other critical Republican races, and retiring Senator Thom Tillis has called Trump's endorsement of Paxton a "colossal mistake" that jeopardizes the seat.

Paxton is selling a "Texas First Data Center Plan" that treats expansion as a yes with conditions: siting in open spaces, a ban on Chinese technology in data centers, criminal liability for AI chatbots that undermine child safety, closed-loop water cooling, and repeal of industry sales tax exemptions worth $3.2 billion over two years. He told the U.S. Hispanic Business Council the support is "a yes with conditions" because China "will have a huge advantage over us in artificial intelligence" and "it can't be a no, because we won't survive that." As attorney general he is probing hundreds of data center developments across Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, El Paso, Travis and Bexar counties for ignoring Texas Water Development Board water-usage surveys, an enforcement step that aligns with Governor Abbott's moratorium on new facilities, while Talarico has attacked him for taking nearly $500,000 in campaign donations from data center companies.