Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton won the GOP runoff over John Cornyn and now trails Democrat James Talarico in polls; he is massively outspent, faces voter-fraud allegations, and rolls out policy plans while Trump headlines a Houston fundraiser for his bid.
Ken Paxton enters the general election as the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee for a Texas Senate seat that has moved from lean Republican to a Cook Political Report toss-up. An Aug. 7 Texas A&M Bush School poll shows James Talarico leading Paxton 47 to 43, within the margin of error, matching three prior surveys. Paxton is underperforming his own base — capturing 85 percent of Republicans versus Talarico's 97 percent of Democrats — and scrutiny over his 2023 impeachment and allegations that he voted illegally from a Denton County address continue to dog him.
Money is the sharpest gap. Talarico raised a record $30 million in the second quarter to Paxton's $9 million and has spent over $25 million on ads since late May, while Paxton spent only $119,000, blaming a depleted war chest from his primary runoff. A Supreme Court ruling may let him tap national GOP funds to narrow the gap, and Trump headlined a Houston fundraiser on Aug. 26. National Republicans count his seat among six vulnerable GOP Senate holds.
On policy, Paxton released a four-point data center regulation plan including a ban on Chinese tech in critical infrastructure, criminal liability for AI chatbot companies whose products endanger children, co-sponsorship of the DATA Act, and repeal of state sales tax exemptions for data centers. Talarico calls it hypocritical, noting Paxton previously backed those exemptions. As attorney general, Paxton secured a $10 million settlement with Texas Children's Hospital over Medicaid billing for minor gender-affirming care, won a Fifth Circuit ruling restoring nine mail-in ballot provisions, opened a "ghost jobs" probe into LinkedIn, lost a court challenge to the State Fair's handgun ban, and is the named defendant in a federal lawsuit over Texas's delta-8 felony reclassification.
Paxton has not confirmed three debates Talarico scheduled for late September and October. His campaign has run masculinity-themed attacks on Talarico, amplified by an AI-generated video mocking his build and marital status. Prediction markets still give Paxton a slight edge.
On their plate
Paxton trails Talarico 47-43 in an August poll and holds only 85 percent of Republican support versus Talarico's 97 percent of Democrats. Cook Political Report moved the race to a toss-up; Talarico has outspent Paxton roughly 200-to-1 on ads since late May, though Paxton blames a primary-drained war chest and prediction markets still give him a slight edge.
Talarico raised a record $30 million in Q2 against Paxton's $9 million and has spent over $25 million on ads. Trump headlined a Houston fundraiser for Paxton on Aug. 26, and a Supreme Court ruling may let Paxton tap national GOP funds to close the spending gap.
Paxton released a four-point plan to regulate Texas data centers: federal legislation banning Chinese tech in critical infrastructure, criminal liability for AI chatbot companies whose products endanger children, co-sponsorship of the DATA Act, and repeal of state sales tax exemptions for data centers. Talarico calls the plan hypocritical, noting Paxton previously supported the exemptions he now seeks to repeal, and Trump has separately called Texas resistance to the data center industry a mistake.
Paxton faces allegations of voting illegally in six consecutive elections, including the March GOP primary, from a Denton County address where he no longer resided after his 2024 separation from wife State Sen. Angela Paxton. He has repeatedly declined to answer residency questions, and the Collin County Democratic Party filed a complaint with the secretary of state, whose staff attorneys are reviewing it.
Paxton secured a $10 million settlement with Texas Children's Hospital over Medicaid billing for minor gender-affirming care, forcing the hospital to open a detransition clinic and fire five doctors. He won a Fifth Circuit ruling restoring nine mail-in ballot provisions, opened a probe into LinkedIn over ghost jobs, lost a court challenge to the State Fair's handgun ban, and is the named defendant in a federal lawsuit challenging Texas's delta-8 felony reclassification.
Key relationships
Talarico is Paxton's Democratic opponent in the toss-up Texas Senate race, leading in polls and massively outspending him. Talarico has attacked Paxton for selling out working people; Paxton's campaign has run masculinity-themed attacks on Talarico and his adviser dismissed Talarico's debate terms as political theater.
Trump endorsed Paxton after the GOP runoff and headlined a Houston fundraiser for his Senate bid on Aug. 26. During the runoff, Trump had withheld endorsement, conditioning it on passage of the SAVE America Act; Paxton pledged to help pass it and committed to stay in regardless.
Maddux is Paxton's senior campaign adviser and spokesman, publicly defending Paxton on debate terms, donor scrutiny, and the cell tower income story.
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