Pentagon Raises Iran War Cost to $29 Billion as Analysts Project Trillions

The cost of the U.S. war against Iran, designated Operation Epic Fury, is climbing faster than the Trump administration initially disclosed. On April 29, the administration reported to Congress that the conflict's first two months cost approximately $25 billion in munitions and operational expenses. Pentagon comptroller Jules W. Hurst III defended that figure. But independent analysts sharply disputed it. Stephen Semler of the Security Policy Reform Institute estimated the 60-day cost at nearly $72 billion, factoring in subsidies to Israel and destroyed assets. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projected costs between $38 billion and $47 billion, while Brown University's Watson School reported over $37 billion in economic costs, largely from rising gasoline prices since the conflict began on February 28.

Just two weeks later, the Pentagon revised its own figure upward by $4 billion. At a May 12 House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing in Washington, DC, Hurst disclosed the updated total of $29 billion, attributing the increase to revised equipment repair and replacement costs plus operational expenses for deployed forces. Roughly $24 billion relates to munitions replacement and equipment repair alone. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine also testified, with Hegseth stating the 2027 budget request reflects the urgency of the moment.

The rising costs are drawing bipartisan scrutiny from lawmakers, with Democrats tying the war to domestic living costs ahead of midterm elections. Some analysts warn the true total could reach $40–50 billion or even $1 trillion when accounting for damage to U.S. bases and long-term obligations. Economist Justin Wolfers projected the total cost could reach trillions due to inflation and lost economic growth. In March, the administration requested $200 billion from Congress to fund the conflict.