Poll Shows Greg Abbott Leading Gina Hinojosa in Texas Race

A new poll from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project shows Republican Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa 45% to 40% in the race for governor. While Abbott has widened his lead, the five-point margin is significantly tighter than his victories in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

The data indicates a sharp geographic and ideological divide. Abbott maintains strong support among rural voters, winning 61% to 23%. However, Hinojosa holds a four-point edge in the suburbs and a substantial lead among independents, who prefer her 37% to 17%. The two candidates are statistically tied in urban areas.

Other statewide contests show mixed results. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 42% to 39%, though they remain statistically tied. Republicans maintain leads in other races, with Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick leading Vikki Goodwin by seven points, Mayes Middleton leading Nathan Johnson by five points for Attorney General, and Don Huffines leading Sarah Eckhardt by six points for Comptroller.

Early voting for the 2026 Midterms begins October 19, with Election Day on November 3.