Emkay Global Warns US Midterms May Spike Oil Prices
Emkay Global Financial Services warns that US midterm elections and potential conflict with Iran could drive up oil prices and pressure Indian financial markets.
Financial brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services released a research report stating that India's financial markets will likely face continued pressure from high crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty following the November 3 US midterm elections. The firm predicts a 60 percent probability of Democrats winning both the House and Senate, but argues such a victory is unlikely to significantly limit the executive authority of President Donald Trump over trade and foreign policy.
The brokerage warns that a fresh US strike on Iran or a renewed escalation in conflict could trigger a sharp increase in oil prices. Such a spike would negatively impact India's equities, foreign exchange market, and balance of payments. Emkay Global Financial Services contends that oil prices are unlikely to decline after the midterms.
Despite these risks, the report suggests that US-India strategic cooperation regarding defense, technology, and relations with China will remain resilient due to bipartisan support in the United States.
