Labour Projected to Win 353 Seats and Commons Majority
An Electoral Calculus poll predicts the Labour Party would win a 56-seat House of Commons majority under the leadership of Andy Burnham.
An MRP poll conducted by Electoral Calculus predicts the Labour Party would secure a majority of 56 seats in the House of Commons if a general election were held now. Nationally, Labour is projected to win 353 seats with 28% of the vote, while the Conservative Party is forecast to win 90 seats and Reform UK 81 seats.
Regional data shows a significant surge in support for Labour in the North of England. In Greater Manchester, the party is projected to win 25 of 27 parliamentary seats, with regional support reaching 40 percent. This trend, described as a Burnham bounce, is attributed to the left-of-centre rhetoric of leader Andy Burnham, which has reclaimed voters from the Liberal Democrats and Greens. In Cumbria, Labour is forecast to retain four of five seats, though Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives as the primary challenger in several of those constituencies.
Polling also indicates a strong preference for regional autonomy in the North West, where 64 percent of respondents favor devolved decision-making via local councils or regional mayors over the UK Government. While Reform UK is expected to place second in 20 Greater Manchester seats, analysts note the party is currently failing to convert that support into actual seat wins.
