Polls Show Ocasio-Cortez Leads Democrats in New Hampshire

A University of New Hampshire poll identifies Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the leading potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate in the state, where she holds 22% support. She has overtaken former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg for the top spot, followed by Sen. Mark Kelly, Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Sen. Bernie Sanders. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance remains the front-runner with 36% support, leading Secretary of State Marco Rubio by approximately 10 percentage points, though his support has dropped from 50% in February.

Separately, national polling indicates a Democratic advantage heading into the midterms. An Emerson College Polling survey shows Democrats leading Republicans by 11 points on a generic congressional ballot, driven largely by a 27-point margin among women. Other data from Decision Desk HQ and Nate Silver suggest a narrower lead of 4 to 6 points.

Democratic leaders are attempting to leverage the low approval ratings of President Donald Trump and economic frustration to flip the House of Representatives. Projections from Decision Desk HQ suggest Republicans may narrowly retain the Senate, with Vice President JD Vance potentially serving as the tiebreaker in a 50-50 split.