CFTC Investigates Adam Kinzinger Over Pardon Prediction Bets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating Adam Kinzinger for betting on his own presidential pardon via the prediction market Kalshi.
The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican Representative, for prediction-market trades made on the platform Kalshi. Between December 2024 and January 2025, Kinzinger wagered on whether President Joe Biden would issue preemptive pardons and specifically whether he himself would be pardoned.
Kinzinger admitted to placing approximately 25 trades, earning a profit of $823 from the pardon-related bets while losing money on other transactions. The investigation focuses on whether these trades violated Kalshi rules prohibiting the use of material nonpublic information or betting on events in which the user is directly named.
Kinzinger denies possessing inside information, noting he had been out of office for two years and had no contact with anyone near the White House regarding the matter. The probe follows a January 6, 2025, CNN appearance where Kinzinger publicly stated he did not want a pardon, shortly before President Biden issued a full and unconditional pardon to Kinzinger and other members of the House January 6 committee.
