Trump Signs Fragile Iran Ceasefire Amid New Missile Attacks

President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran to end a conflict characterized by joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The war resulted in the deaths of 13 American service members, cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $132 billion, and saw the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which drove U.S. gas prices up by 50%.

Under the agreement, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirmed its promise not to produce nuclear weapons. In exchange, the U.S. provided temporary sanctions waivers for oil exports and a proposed $300 billion reconstruction plan. However, the deal excludes concessions regarding Iran's ballistic missiles or its support for proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Internally, the U.S. administration has operated a "good cop, bad cop" dynamic, with Vice President JD Vance defending the diplomacy while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previously led the kinetic military operations.

Tensions remain high as a new generation of Iranian leadership, led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, seeks leverage. Despite the MoU, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 6, 2026, striking the LNG tanker Al Rekayyat. Following these attacks, Trump warned he would either reach a final deal or "finish the job," while Iranian officials dismissed the threats. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged regional cooperation, warning that the Israeli government must not be allowed to derail the diplomatic process.