Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Hosted the 36th NATO summit in Ankara, secured Trump's CAATSA sanctions lift and F-35 reentry signal, brokered Syria's terror-state delisting, and signed a UK defence partnership — while fending off Netanyahu's lobbying against the F-35 sale and pressing a stalled EU membership bid blocked by Cyprus.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is riding the most consequential diplomatic stretch of his recent tenure. He hosted the 36th NATO summit in Ankara July 7–9, drawing Trump with a 21-gun-salute welcome and walking away with the prize he had chased for years: Trump lifted CAATSA sanctions, signaled F-35 reentry, and flagged F-110 engine sales for the indigenous KAAN fighter. The unlocking move was Erdoğan's sale of Türkiye's Russian-made S-400 systems to Qatar, finalized July 9, which strips the CAATSA trigger. The transfer still requires Moscow's re-export consent; Kremlin spokesman Peskov called it "an extremely sensitive issue." Erdoğan publicly confirmed Türkiye is negotiating its return to the F-35 program and predicted a favorable decision from the summit.
The summit produced what allies branded "NATO 3.0" — a 5%-of-GDP defense-spending target by 2035, over $50 billion in procurement deals, and €70 billion in Ukraine aid. Erdoğan signed a Security and Defence Partnership with UK Prime Minister Starmer covering defense industry, cyber, counter-terrorism, and space. He met Macron on Ukraine, Iran, and trade, stressing that strengthening NATO's European pillar is vital to preserving the transatlantic bond. He agreed with Bulgarian President Radev to freeze a contentious 13-year gas contract, relieving Sofia of daily reservation fees. On the summit sidelines, he brokered Trump's first bilateral with Syrian President al-Sharaa, after which Trump moved to delist Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism — a major payoff for Erdoğan's mediator role.
The Israel confrontation has sharpened into open hostility. Netanyahu lobbied Trump directly to block the F-35 sale, branding Erdoğan's government a regime "infected by the Muslim Brotherhood" and warning the deal would erode Israel's qualitative military edge. Erdoğan fired back that Türkiye is "closely following the Israeli administration's attempts to dynamite the deal," accused Israel of sabotaging the June 19 US-Iran ceasefire MOU, and framed "Zionist ideology" as "based on genocide, occupation and expansion." Netanyahu plans to press the case again with Trump during a July 18 DC visit.
On July 13, Erdoğan's government ordered the arrest of 968 FETO suspects in a nationwide "great purification" sweep timed to the 10th-anniversary commemorations of the failed 2016 coup, which he led in Ankara, framing the putsch as defeated by civilian resistance and calling the arrests "a great gift from God." He hosted Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir for defense talks on F-16 upgrades, corvette construction, and a $5 billion trade target. He vows "no retreat" from the "Terror-free Türkiye" initiative targeting the PKK, now in its 18th month, though the process has stalled over sequencing: the government demands full disarmament before legal reforms, while PKK's Karayılan calls that "irrational" without legal guarantees. On the EU track, he met von der Leyen and Costa in Ankara, but Cyprus's president conditions any progress — including customs union modernization — on substantive movement on the Cyprus problem.
On their plate
Trump lifted CAATSA sanctions at the Ankara NATO summit and signaled F-35 reentry plus F-110 engine sales for the KAAN fighter. Erdoğan sealed the path by selling Türkiye's Russian-made S-400 systems to Qatar, removing the CAATSA trigger, though Moscow's re-export consent is still pending. Netanyahu is actively lobbying Trump to block the sale, citing Türkiye's support for Hamas and warning it would erode Israel's qualitative military edge.
Erdoğan hosted the 36th NATO summit in Ankara July 7-9, drawing 30-plus heads of state. Allies pledged over $50 billion in procurement deals, 70 billion euros in Ukraine aid, and a 5%-of-GDP defense-spending target by 2035. He conducted bilaterals with Trump, Macron, Starmer, Carney, and Stubb, and paired the security agenda with a Turkish culinary showcase. He gifted .357 Magnum revolvers to NATO leaders, most of whom declined over legal transport restrictions.
Erdoğan facilitated the first Trump-al-Sharaa meeting on the summit sidelines, after which Trump notified Congress on July 8 of his intent to delist Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, subject to a 45-day review. The move commits to removing reconstruction barriers and allowing US company investment, a major payoff for Erdoğan's mediator role on the Syria track.
Erdoğan has hardened Türkiye's adversarial posture toward Israel, framing Zionist ideology as based on genocide and occupation while positioning Türkiye as a patron of Hamas. He accused Israel of sabotaging the June 19 US-Iran ceasefire MOU and said Türkiye is closely following Israel's attempts to block the F-35 deal. Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to block the sale and plans to press the case during a July 18 DC visit.
Erdoğan ordered a nationwide sweep arresting 968 FETO suspects on July 13, timed to the 10th-anniversary coup commemorations, calling it a divinely ordained purification. The Terror-free Türkiye initiative with the PKK is in its 18th month but stalled over sequencing: the government demands full disarmament before legal reforms, while the PKK calls that irrational without legal guarantees.
Erdoğan demands the EU recognize Türkiye as an indispensable full member, asserting the bloc needs Türkiye more than Türkiye needs it. He met von der Leyen and Costa in Ankara, but Cyprus's president Christodoulides conditions any EU-Türkiye progress, including customs union modernization and SAFE program access, on substantive movement on the Cyprus problem, proposing an informal multilateral meeting next month.
Erdoğan signed a Security and Defence Partnership with UK PM Starmer on July 8 covering defense industry, cyber, counter-terrorism, and space. He froze a contentious 13-year gas contract with Bulgaria, relieving Sofia of daily reservation charges. He hosted Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir for defense talks on F-16 upgrades, corvette construction, and a $5 billion trade target. He co-led the Srebrenica genocide commemoration in Bosnia.
Key relationships
Trump lifted CAATSA sanctions, signaled F-35 reentry and F-110 engine sales, and praised Erdoğan as a loyal ally at the Ankara summit. Erdoğan leveraged their personal rapport to lock in the sanctions lift and F-35 reentry signal, hosting Trump with a lavish ceremony.
Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to block the F-35 sale to Türkiye, branding Erdoğan's government a regime infected by the Muslim Brotherhood. Erdoğan accuses Israel of trying to dynamite the deal and of sabotaging the US-Iran ceasefire, framing Zionist ideology as based on genocide and occupation.
Erdoğan and Starmer signed a Security and Defence Partnership on July 8 in Ankara, institutionalizing cooperation in defense industry, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and space.
Erdoğan hosted Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir in Ankara July 13-14 for defense talks covering F-16 upgrades, corvette warship construction, and a $5 billion trade target.
Erdoğan held a bilateral with Macron at the Ankara summit covering Ukraine, Iran, and bilateral trade targets, stressing that strengthening NATO's European pillar is vital to preserving the transatlantic bond.
Cyprus's President Christodoulides is conditioning any EU-Türkiye progress, including customs union modernization and SAFE program access, on substantive movement on the Cyprus problem, blocking Erdoğan's EU membership push.
Erdoğan signed a protocol with Bulgarian President Radev on July 6 freezing the gas contract for 15 months, relieving Bulgaria of daily unused-capacity charges, while also pressing Radev on EU customs union implementation.
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