Economic Pessimism Grows Ahead of November Midterm Elections

Economic instability and rising costs of living have become central issues as the United States prepares for midterm elections on November 3. A Harris poll conducted between September 24 and October 3 shows that 58% of voters now view the economy as declining, a 10 percentage point increase since the Joe Biden administration. This pessimism extends to the Republican base, where only 28% of voters believe the economy is improving, down from 49% in February 2026.

Donald Trump faces significant headwinds following the implementation of liberation day tariffs and a trade war that barred rural producers from Chinese markets. Military action in Iran further strained the economy, driving up diesel and fertilizer costs and pushing California gas prices to an average of $6.20 per gallon. Additionally, immigration raids have disrupted the rural labor force. While Trump claims the country is growing at an unprecedented rate, voters increasingly cite an affordability crisis regarding groceries and healthcare.

Democratic candidates are leveraging this discontent in key battleground states. In Texas, James Talarico is campaigning on the struggle of citizens facing high costs, while in Michigan, Abdul el-Sayed has linked high prices to the current political climate. The economic landscape is further complicated by the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair as voters weigh the impact of current tariffs and monetary policy.