James Talarico Holds Slim Lead Over Ken Paxton in Texas

Democratic candidate James Talarico holds a narrow 2-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters. Talarico leads 51% to 49%, a margin within the 3-point margin of error. While Talarico maintains strong support among Black, moderate, and Hispanic voters, Paxton leads among rural voters and White evangelical Christians. The poll highlights a significant favorability gap, with Talarico holding a net positive rating while Paxton remains 18 points underwater.

Campaign spending reveals a divide in outreach strategies. Republican-aligned groups spent $188 million on advertisements for Paxton, but only $4.2 million was allocated to Spanish-language media. Talarico has integrated Spanish into his campaign through ads and a WhatsApp service, spending $4.6 million on Spanish media and leading Paxton among Hispanic voters by roughly 20 points.

President Donald Trump recently campaigned for Paxton at a rally in Denton, describing him as one of the most loyal people. However, leaked audio suggests Paxton told donors that a previous Trump-backed convention in Dallas damaged his campaign numbers. The race remains volatile as 51% of likely voters express concern that Paxton is too close to Trump, while 53% worry Talarico is too liberal. In the concurrent gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47%.