China's Third-Quarter GDP Hits 4.5 Percent Amid Export Surge

The Government of China reported that the economy grew by 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2026, recovering from a 4.3 percent gain in the second quarter. This figure exceeded median economist forecasts of 4.4 percent and brings the expansion for the first nine months of the year to 4.6 percent, placing the country within its official annual growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent.

Growth was driven primarily by a surge in exports of technological goods and AI infrastructure components. September exports rose at their fastest year-over-year pace since 2010, with shipments to the United States increasing by 40 percent and to Europe by 25 percent. This export boom follows a September agreement between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to implement reciprocal tariff reductions.

However, official data masks a severe domestic slump. Property investment fell 20.6 percent in the first nine months of the year, and retail sales remain weak. To counter these trends, the government implemented targeted interest-rate cuts, mortgage subsidies for homes up to 1.5 million yuan, and allocated 550 billion yuan in debt quotas to support local government infrastructure. While home prices in Shanghai showed signs of stabilization, prices in smaller cities continue to fall.

Despite the rebound, the National Bureau of Statistics noted that the international environment remains complex and volatile, while insufficient domestic demand remains a prominent issue. Some Western economists expressed skepticism regarding the official figures, suggesting independent estimates are significantly lower.