Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Trump Rejects Iran Deal

Middle East crude oil exports rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran began in February. This recovery was driven by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which increased daily exports to 5.4 million barrels. Following September 10 drone strikes from Iraq that damaged its East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia initially diverted shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to Gulf terminals, including Ras Tanura.

Saudi Aramco resumed operations on the East-West pipeline on September 27, currently operating at 3.5 million barrels per day to provide a critical bypass to the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the rebound, regional exports remain approximately 6 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Tanker trackers report that some vessels are operating in dark mode to avoid detection, and Iranian media reported explosions and missile strikes against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal, presented via Qatari mediators, for a seven-day ceasefire and the reopening of the strait. Trump stated that Iran is losing so badly and indicated he remains open to resuming attacks after the midterms. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi maintained that any move toward reopening the waterway is contingent on Washington easing military pressure, lifting port blockades, and providing sanctions relief.