EU Energy Shift Creates High-Risk Dependency on US LNG

The European Union has developed a significant geopolitical dependency on American liquefied natural gas (LNG) after severing energy links with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. now supplies 57% of the bloc's LNG imports, and a July 2025 trade deal legally commits the EU to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy by 2028. The EU further agreed in December to fully phase out Russian fossil fuels by the end of 2027.

This energy shift has created a strategic vulnerability that President Donald Trump has leveraged. Trump announced 10% tariffs on eight European nations in response to opposition regarding his planned acquisition of Greenland, warning that levies would rise to 25% by June 1 if Denmark does not cede the territory. European officials fear the U.S. could use its energy dominance as a punitive measure by cutting gas exports.

Germany is particularly exposed, with the German Environmental Aid Association reporting that 96% of its total LNG imports in 2025 originated from the U.S. This represents 101 terawatt-hours costing $3.2 billion, a 60% increase over 2024. Critics, including the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, warn that this transition replaces one high-risk geopolitical dependency with another.