Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Wins Fourth Brazilian Presidency

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth non-consecutive term in the October 25 runoff election, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With nearly all votes counted, Lula secured approximately 51.8% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 48.2%. The victory marks a reversal from the first round on October 4, where Bolsonaro led with 47% to Lula's 45%. Lula's win was bolstered by strong support in the Northeast and a critical shift in the swing state of Minas Gerais, though Bolsonaro carried São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

The election process was marred by chaos, including severe flooding in Bolsonaro-leaning regions and public transportation failures in Lula strongholds. In response, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered a nationwide two-hour extension of polling hours, a move that caused logistical confusion at several sites. During the campaign, Lula accused the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump of interfering in Brazilian sovereignty through tariffs and the designation of Brazilian gangs as terrorist organizations.

Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned on a platform of drastic spending cuts, authoritarian security measures inspired by El Salvador, and amnesty for his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. While Lula retains the presidency, the right-wing Liberal Party secured a plurality in the lower house and the largest bloc in the Senate, potentially limiting his legislative power. Markets reacted sharply to the result, with Brazilian stocks plunging nearly 20% and the real weakening against the dollar.