Danish Intelligence Warns of Limited Russian Attacks on NATO

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service reported on September 24, 2026, that there is a low but growing risk of Russia launching limited military attacks against NATO members bordering its territory. These operations, which could occur within the coming months, might involve long-range missiles, drones, or small troop incursions targeting infrastructure that supports Ukraine. Intelligence suggests such strikes could be disguised as accidents or false-flag operations to divide the alliance and test the collective response under Article 5.

While a full-scale invasion remains highly unlikely, the agency expects an intensification of hybrid threats, including cyberattacks and sabotage of defense companies and military transports. The Danish Security and Intelligence Service added that Russian intelligence is actively recruiting Danish citizens via social media to plan sabotage against the Danish defense industry. These warnings follow security incidents including a suspected sabotage event at a Starlink ground station in Poland and a confrontation where a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish helicopter.

Reactions to the assessment vary. The Government of Russia denied planning a confrontation with NATO and stated it does not intend to expand its military operations beyond Ukraine, though spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that the response to anti-Russian ventures would be destructive. In contrast, former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer previously cited assessments that an attack could occur by 2030, while U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that Russia would not attack NATO territory.