Iran Shifts to Offensive Strategy as US Peace Deal Expires

Hard-line leaders in Iran have abandoned a mid-June memorandum of understanding with the United States, shifting toward a strategy of offensive operations to secure concessions from Washington. Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the de facto government, consolidating power over the regular army and appointing war veterans to key security posts under the direction of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Tehran utilized the relative calm of the 60-day peace pact to boost missile and drone production and deploy advisers to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. The IRGC has since coordinated with regional proxies to target Saudi Arabian oil facilities and launch ballistic missile strikes against U.S. bases in Jordan. Iranian officials, including Army Chief Amir Hatami, have further escalated tensions by offering financial rewards for the capture or killing of U.S. soldiers.

In response to claims by President Donald Trump that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be declared U.S. territory, the IRGC warned of strategic surprises targeting energy and internet infrastructure. While Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf conditioned the reopening of the Strait on the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets, Donald Trump stated that no talks are scheduled and the U.S. naval blockade remains in full effect.