Three Seas, Three Blockades, One Tactic Nobody Will Name

When Mike Wirth, the CEO of Chevron, called the White House, the Trump administration listened. Within days, Washington had warned Ukraine to stop striking Russian ports in the Black Sea. ^[1]

We regard such attacks as an unacceptable infringement upon the economic interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as deliberate acts aimed at destabilising lawful international trade and global energy markets and undermining the security of global transport and logistics supply chains. — Government of Kazakhstan

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, in that same stretch of July, "remains in full effect." ^[2]

The US naval blockade against Iran remains in full effect. — United States Central Command

A few days earlier, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had called Ukrainian maritime strikes "terrorism, pure and simple." ^[3]

It is terrorism, pure and simple. — Sergey Lavrov

Russian forces, at that same moment, were striking Ukrainian ports and merchant ships with the identical tactic. ^[4] The pattern extends across three connected bodies of water. In the Strait of Hormuz, traffic has collapsed to 1.27% of pre-conflict averages. LNG carriers and very large crude carriers — the tankers that move oil between continents — have been absent for consecutive days. The IEA's Fatih Birol called it the worst energy disruption in history. ^[5]

Oil security is still a critical issue. — Fatih Birol

War-risk insurance premiums have surged from 0.15% to 5% of hull value, and roughly 9,000 seafarers are stranded on vessels that cannot move. ^[5] Iran has declared the closure will last "until the end of America's evils" and threatened to incite Houthi allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as well — an open-ended blockade, not a temporary tactic. ^[5] In the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, Ukraine's Operation MoLoCHKa has hit more than 180 Russian targets over three weeks, paralyzing the ports of Azov and Taman and reducing Kerch ferry capacity by 75%. ^[3]

This war must be brought to an end, and all reasonable diplomatic proposals are on the table. — Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports and grain terminals, meanwhile, have pushed wheat futures to two-year highs. ^[4] A Ukrainian drone strike on the CPC terminal in Novorossiysk cut Kazakh oil production from 2.07 million to 1.63 million barrels per day — roughly 2% of daily global crude — and threatens refinery operations in Romania. ^[1]

Loading operations at CPC are currently temporarily suspended to ensure the safety of vessels, crews, and the environment in the Black Sea. — Government of Kazakhstan

And in the Caspian Sea, Ukraine has confirmed long-range strikes on Iranian cargo vessels. President Zelenskyy made the target explicit. ^[6]

We also achieved very strong results with long‑range strikes in the Caspian Sea - including vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran. — Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Iran, for its part, is rebuilding a shipyard at Bandar Anzali on the Caspian — the same body of water where Ukraine is hitting its cargo fleet — even as the US diplomatic pause continues. ^[7] Three seas, three blockades, and not one belligerent willing to call the tactic by its name when their own shipping is the target.