What the Peace Deals Don't Touch

The Trump administration brokered two milestones this spring and summer: an Iran deal signed June 15 ^[1] and a trilateral Israel-Lebanon agreement on July 2 ^[2]. Both regulate where Israel's military operates and when it withdraws. Neither says anything about what Israel builds, what courts it establishes, or whose land it administers. During the same eight weeks, Israel laid down three categories of permanent architecture — and the construction tracked the diplomatic calendar step for step.

2026-05-09 Netanyahu blocks formal repeal of the Oslo Accords, citing need for US coordination ^[3]

2026-05-12 Knesset passes military tribunal law for October 7 suspects, 93-0, with death penalty authority ^[4]

2026-05-15 Ministers announce settlement expansion as Lebanon negotiations proceed in Washington ^[5]

2026-05-17 Death penalty extended to West Bank Palestinians by military order; military compound approved on seized UNRWA site in East Jerusalem ^[6][7]

2026-06-03 2,162 new settlement homes approved in the West Bank ^[8]

2026-06-11 Funding announced for 61 new West Bank settlements ^[9]

2026-06-15 Trump signs Iran deal; Smotrich calls it bad for Israel ^[1]

2026-06-16 Hebron planning powers seized from Palestinian Authority ^[10]

2026-06-30 Three new settlements proposed in northern Gaza ^[11]

2026-07-02 Trilateral Israel-Lebanon peace deal signed ^[2]

2026-07-03 Billion-shekel tribunal complex under construction; 13 new outposts approved ^[12][13]

The juridical architecture came first and fastest. On May 12, the Knesset passed a special military tribunal law for October 7 suspects, 93-0, with authority to impose the death penalty, bar defendants from prisoner exchanges, admit evidence obtained under coercion, and route appeals to a special court ^[4]. By this week, a one-billion-shekel tribunal complex was under construction in Atarot, northern Jerusalem: nine courtrooms, fifteen judicial panels, 12,000 witnesses registered. The first trial is not expected before 2028; funding runs through 2029 ^[12]. Five days after the Knesset vote, Israel's Central Command extended the death penalty to Palestinians in the West Bank by military order, creating a dual system where Palestinians face military courts with death as a possible sentence while Israeli settlers in the same territory face civilian courts ^[6]. The territorial architecture is the most visible. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced funding for 61 new West Bank settlements on June 11 ^[9], approved 2,162 new settlement homes on June 3 ^[8], proposed three settlements in northern Gaza on June 30 ^[11], and by this week 13 new outposts had been established across the West Bank ^[13]. He described the construction in explicit terms: establishing facts on the ground to prevent what he called an Arab terrorist state ^[9][8]. The framing is deliberate. The settlements are meant to be irreversible. The administrative architecture is quieter but equally permanent. On June 16, Smotrich announced he had cancelled the Hebron agreements, an Oslo-era arrangement governing planning authority around the Ibrahimi Mosque ^[10]. Israel's own Foreign Ministry contradicted him, saying the agreement was not fully canceled, only specific jurisdictions adjusted. But the Higher Planning Council then approved construction without Palestinian municipal consent for the first time in decades ^[10]. Whether the agreement was formally canceled or merely gutted makes no practical difference. Separately, Israel approved a nine-acre military compound on the seized UNRWA headquarters site in East Jerusalem's Sheikh Jarrah — defense headquarters, an IDF museum, recruitment offices — replacing a UN institution with military infrastructure in occupied territory ^[7]. The Lebanon deal does not merely leave these uncovered. It widens the gap. Clause 13 commits both governments to cease hostile actions in international political or legal fora ^[14]. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty say the clause could block access to the ICC and ICJ — the international courts that might have challenged the settlement expansion, the death-penalty regime, and the seizure of Palestinian planning authority ^[14]. Israel's domestic tribunal, meanwhile, covers only October 7 suspects. The deal closes international forums while a one-sided domestic court opens ^[14][12]. The United States, which set ceilings on Lebanon and Iran, stayed silent on the West Bank throughout. Trump rebuked Netanyahu at the G7 over the Hezbollah campaign's duration and civilian toll and urged a softer touch — but made no mention of settlements or the tribunal ^[15]. A regional security call with eight Middle East leaders on May 24 addressed preventing escalation but not the West Bank, despite settlement expansion being the most active Israeli policy that week ^[16]. Nine of Washington's closest allies — the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and the Netherlands — jointly condemned the settlements as illegal under international law on May 22; the United States was not among them ^[17]. Eight Arab and Islamic nations condemned settler violence on June 18; again, Washington was absent ^[18]. The EU sanctioned four settler organizations and three individuals on May 28 ^[19]. Washington has a diplomatic instrument where troops are stationed — Lebanon, Iran — and none where concrete is poured. Netanyahu's handling of the Oslo Accords follows the same logic. On May 9, he blocked a bill to formally repeal the accords, the cabinet secretary noting it required US coordination ^[3]. Formal repeal would have triggered a confrontation Washington does not want. But Smotrich was permitted to dismantle Oslo's provisions in practice — seizing Hebron planning powers, approving construction without Palestinian municipal consent ^[10]. The framework stays on paper. Its provisions disappear on the ground. The distinction between formal cancellation and factual irrelevance has no practical meaning. Smotrich, for his part, opposed the Iran deal the same week he was pushing settlement expansion the deal does not cover, calling the agreement bad for Israel and the free world ^[1]. He rejects the diplomatic instrument even as the coverage gap it leaves serves the construction agenda. The trilateral deal landed two days ago. The tribunal will not hold its first trial until 2028. By then, the settlements approved this spring will have stood for two years, the Hebron planning powers will be two years seized, and the death-penalty military order will have been on the books longer than the ceasefire that never addressed it. Whether any subsequent diplomatic phase turns to the territory Washington has so far refused to touch — or whether the gap hardens into permanence — is the question the summer's diplomacy has opened and left unanswered.