NATO Allies Fill Capability Gaps Ahead of Ankara Summit

The United States is accelerating its military decoupling from European security, prompting NATO allies to rapidly backfill capability gaps. Following a rift over European support for the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, Donald Trump announced the removal of approximately 5,000 troops from Germany and shifted focus toward China and the Indo-Pacific. In June, the Pentagon informed allies of reductions in fighter jets, drones, refueling aircraft, and an aircraft carrier strike group to end an "unhealthy co-dependence."

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched a six-month review of force posture in Europe to shift primary defense responsibility to European nations. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the National Security Advisor blocked Hegseth's proposal for more aggressive personnel cuts. To prevent drastic reductions, U.S. lawmakers included a provision in a defense spending bill prohibiting troop levels in Europe from falling below 76,000 without a formal risk assessment.

NATO commanders, including General Alexus Grynkewich and Sir John Stringer, report that European allies and Canada have largely filled the resulting gaps, including the United Kingdom increasing F-35 and aircraft carrier readiness. Shortfalls remain in strategic bombers, with the U.S. providing only one aircraft instead of two.

Alliance leaders will meet in Ankara on July 7-8 to reaffirm their commitment to Article 5 and identify Russia as a "long-term threat." European members and Canada have pledged 140 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine for 2026 and 2027 to signal to President Trump that they have assumed financing for Ukraine's defense. The summit will also address defense spending targets, with some allies aiming for a 5% GDP goal by 2035.