James Talarico Leads Record-Spending Texas Senate Race
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in a historic Texas Senate race marked by record-breaking spending and unprecedented early voter turnout.
Democratic candidate James Talarico holds a slim lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a U.S. Senate race that has become the most expensive in American history, with spending exceeding $500 million. Polling averages and prediction markets on Election Day, November 3, 2026, place Talarico ahead by roughly 2.6 to 3.3 percentage points. A victory for Talarico would mark the first time a Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
Talarico campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, targeting the influence of billionaires and specifically citing $168 million in contributions from Elon Musk to PACs supporting Paxton. Paxton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, framed Talarico as too progressive while facing scrutiny over a 2023 impeachment and past securities fraud indictments. The candidates focused final efforts on East Texas and San Antonio to secure critical rural and Latino votes.
Texas saw record-breaking early voting, with approximately 7.7 million registered voters casting ballots before Election Day. While Bexar County reported a smooth start to polling on Tuesday, some voters in North Texas experienced wait times exceeding two hours. Amid the surge, the Potter County Republican Party requested a federal judge block certification until all paper ballots are hand-counted, citing concerns that AI advancements have compromised existing safeguards. Other high-profile contests include Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a fourth term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
