New START Treaty Expires as Trump Seeks China's Inclusion

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the final bilateral agreement limiting the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, expired on February 5, 2026. The pact had capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 and delivery systems at 700 to 800 per side. Its collapse removes all binding limits on the world's two largest nuclear powers for the first time since the early 1970s.

Donald Trump declined a proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin to voluntarily extend the treaty's quantitative limits for one year, characterizing the 2010 agreement as a "badly negotiated deal" that was "grossly violated." Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that any modernized replacement must include China to address Beijing's rapidly growing stockpile, which the Pentagon estimates could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The Government of China has rejected these trilateral demands, arguing its nuclear capabilities are not on the same scale as those of the U.S. and Russia.

Following the expiration, the Government of the Russian Federation declared that both parties are no longer bound by the treaty's obligations. However, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced a conditional moratorium, stating Russia will continue to observe the numerical limits provided the United States does the same. Tensions have been further heightened by U.S. accusations that China conducted secret nuclear tests in 2020 and Russian warnings of military countermeasures if the U.S. deploys missile defense systems in Greenland.

Despite the formal lapse, U.S. and Russian officials met in Abu Dhabi and agreed to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the expiration as a "grave moment for international peace and security," warning that the risk of nuclear weapon use is at its highest in decades.