Democrats Lead in South Texas Congressional and Statewide Polls

Polling from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University shows Democratic candidates leading in three South Texas congressional districts, challenging candidates endorsed by Donald Trump. In District 15, Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz 50% to 45%, prompting the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia to reclassify the seat as a toss-up. In District 28, Democrat Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina 45% to 34%, while Democrat Vicente Gonzalez holds a 45% to 42% lead over Republican Eric Flores in District 34.

The data indicates a defection of 2024 Trump voters, with dissatisfaction linked to the president's handling of a conflict with Iran and four consecutive months of job losses in the Texas oil and natural gas upstream sector.

Democratic leads extend to statewide contests, with James Talarico leading Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate and Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott for governor. Following these results, Sabato's Crystal Ball updated its ratings, moving the Senate race to toss-up and the gubernatorial race from safe Republican to likely Republican. Analysts attribute the increased competitiveness to a potential snap-back of the Latino vote and low favorability ratings for Ken Paxton.